Country page
The EU’s direct Hormuz exposure is modest, but fertilizer input prices and industrial gas procurement remain important transmission channels.
Hormuz exposure
17%
Oil stock cover
98 days
Fertilizer
52/100
Helium
51/100
Country narrative
Nitrogen economics remain vulnerable to any renewed LNG tightness.
Physical oil shortage risk is lower than price shock risk.
Direct oil dependence sits at 21% of the country’s external energy risk profile, while gas-linked downstream exposure remains notable at 11%.
Oil dependence
21%
Gas dependence
11%
Risk score
49 / 100
Reserve stress
Related commodities
Oil
Stress score
76 / 100
Route dependence
84%
7d move
+6.8%
Crude remains the most immediate transmission channel, with freight, insurance, and strategic stock policy all shaping spot balances.
Gas
Stress score
74 / 100
Route dependence
61%
7d move
+5.4%
Asian LNG replacement prices are rising as buyers scenario-plan longer Gulf loading and transit assumptions.
Industrial Gas
Stress score
61 / 100
Route dependence
41%
7d move
+3.1%
Helium is a narrower market, but even modest logistics friction can affect hospitals, fabs, aerospace supply chains, and research labs.
Live snippets
17:24 HKT · Freight
Brokers are quoting wider ranges for April fixtures as owners price in scheduling slack and higher perceived transit risk.
16:58 HKT · Reserves
Current official posture remains preparatory, but contingency coordination has become more active across Asia.
16:11 HKT · Nitrogen
Tender timing is turning from opportunistic to defensive in South Asia, with price secondary to volume certainty.
15:36 HKT · LNG
The move reflects longer expected Gulf turnaround assumptions rather than confirmed physical outages.